Market Drivers
Since mid-2022, nearly every quarter has recorded negative net absorption. However, direct net absorption in the first quarter posted a positive 64.7K SF, marking a rebound from the negative trend seen over the past year.
Vacancy and availability rates continued to increase in Q1 2026, rising 120 basis points (bps) and 90 bps year-over-year (YOY), respectively, to 5.0% and 6.5%. Although both rates have been on the rise over the past couple of years, they remain relatively low from a historical perspective and when compared to most other major industrial markets along the West Coast. Leasing activity in Q1 2026 totaled 474K SF, reflecting an 6.2% decrease YOY. Small-bay properties under 50K SF continue to account for much of the demand, while activity from larger occupiers remains limited with only one transaction over 100K SF in Q1.
With the exception of 2022, 2025 posted the highest volume of new construction delivered in 20 years. Another 891K SF is under construction and due to complete by 2026. Although the market is not heavily oversupplied, steady deliveries coupled with soft demand could put upward pressure in vacancy and availability rates in coming quarters.
Economic Review
At the time of reporting, the latest available unemployment rate for the Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura MSA recorded in December 2025 at 4.7%, unchanged compared to the same time last year and down 30 bps from the prior month.
Amgen, the largest private-sector employer in Ventura County, is headquartered in Thousand Oaks and announced plans in Oct 2025 to invest $600M in a new pharmaceutical research and development facility at its primary campus. The project is designed to bring scientists, engineers and researchers together under one roof and is expected to generate hundreds of new local jobs. City officials note that the investment would rank among the largest single economic commitments in Ventura County’s history.
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
Investor demand in Ventura’s industrial market remains tempered by elevated interest rates, though the submarket’s strong rental rates and position within Southern California continue to support longterm interest. The broader demand story has been one of gradual normalization, with vacancy drifting higher over the past several years in line with trends playing out across major markets nationwide.
Absorption has been slow to recover, and a return to equilibrium is expected to be a measured process through the remainder of 2026. As financing conditions loosen, Ventura appears reasonably well-positioned to capture renewed capital attention.
1Q 2026 Ventura County Industrial Market: Key Data Points
Explore our full Ventura County industrial market review for deeper insights into leasing trends, sale activity, and submarket performance.
- Vacancy Rate Trends Higher but Remains Low: Ventura County’s direct vacancy rate increased year-over-year to 5.0%, reflecting a gradual normalization while remaining low relative to most West Coast industrial markets.
- Positive Net Absorption Returns: The market recorded 64,694 SF of positive direct net absorption in 1Q 2026, marking a rebound from several consecutive quarters of negative absorption.
- Asking Lease Rates Hold Near Peak Levels: Average NNN asking rents reached $1.28 PSF per month, showing slight year-over-year growth and continued pricing strength.
- Leasing Activity Moderates: Total leasing activity declined approximately 8% year-over-year to roughly 465,000 SF, with small-bay industrial buildings continuing to drive demand.
- Construction Pipeline Remains Active: Approximately 892,000 SF is currently under construction and scheduled for delivery through 2026, which may place upward pressure on vacancy rates in coming quarters.
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