Market Drivers
Despite one of the few instances of positive direct net absorption occurring this year in Q2 2025, annual absorption totaled –563K SF, marking one of the largest annual occupancy declines in the past 15 years. Since mid-2022, nearly every quarter has recorded negative absorption, resulting in total annual losses over the past three years.
Market-wide vacancy rates reached a 10-year record high in Q4 to 5.2%. Similarly, availability rates hovered near the decade high at 6.5%. Vacancy in small-bay, multi-tenant properties has trended upward since 2023, reaching its highest level in a decade. While vacancies remain below the broader market average, small-bay space continues to perform comparatively better, with time on market staying below long-term norms, indicating continued tenant demand despite softer overall conditions.
Leasing activity dropped nearly 50% YOY in Q4, resulting in the lowest annual leasing volume in five years. Activity has remained concentrated in small-bay properties under 50,000 SF, however, Q4 also saw a modest increase in larger transactions, with three deals exceeding 50,000 SF.
Speculative new construction has been on the rise and besides the exception of 2022, the year posted its highest volume delivered in 20 years. Another 800K SF is under construction and due to complete by 2026. Although the market is not heavily oversupplied, steady deliveries coupled with soft demand could put upward pressure in vacancy and availability rates in coming quarters.
Economic Review
In September, the Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura MSA reported an unemployment rate of 5.1%, an increase from 4.6% when compared to the same time last year but down 20 bps from the month prior in August that posted at 5.3%.
Amgen, the largest private-sector employer in Ventura County, is headquartered in Thousand Oaks and announced plans in Oct 2025 to invest $600 million in a new pharmaceutical research and development facility at its primary campus. The project is expected to generate hundreds of new local jobs. City officials note that the investment would rank among the largest single economic commitments in Ventura County’s history.
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
Ventura’s industrial market is undergoing a recalibration following a multi-year softening in tenant demand that has pushed vacancy higher, reflecting broader trends seen across major industrial markets nationally. With leasing activity still constrained, vacancy may remain elevated into 2026 as the market gradually moves toward balance. While high interest rates continue to temper investor sentiment, Ventura’s relatively strong rental rates and position among Southern California industrial hubs should help sustain investor interest as capital market conditions improve.
4Q 2025 Ventura County Industrial Market: Key Data Points
Explore our full Ventura County industrial market review for deeper insights into leasing trends, sale activity, and submarket performance.
- Vacancy Rate Hits 10-Year High: Direct vacancy rose to 5.2%, up 170 bps year-over-year.
- Availability Rate Near Record: Availability reached 6.5%, reflecting soft demand and steady deliveries.
- Asking Lease Rates Hold Strong: Average asking rent climbed to $1.28 PSF NNN, an 8.5% YOY increase.
- Leasing Activity Declines: Quarterly leasing totaled 495K SF, contributing to the lowest annual volume in five years.
- Negative Net Absorption: Q4 posted –77K SF, with annual absorption at –564K SF, one of the largest declines in 15 years.
- Construction Pipeline Expands: 817K SF under construction, including the 737K SF Oxnard logistics center slated for 2026 delivery.
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