Market Drivers
Direct net absorption totaled -815,945 SF in the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date figure to -540,241 SF. Since mid-2022, nearly every quarter has recorded negative absorption, resulting in total annual losses over the past two years. The third-quarter decline offsets the modest positive absorption recorded earlier in 2025.
Vacancy and availability rates both increased to new record highs in Q3 2025 to 5.2% and 6.9% respectively. While a majority of the submarkets in Ventura experienced an uptick in vacancy and availability rates, Moopark/Simi Valley reflected the largest jump in Q3 to double digit rates for both caused by several large moveouts in the area.
Although leasing volume improved slightly year-over-year during 3Q, it’s on track to record at a 5-year record low on an annual basis by year’s end. While leasing remains steady among the small-bay properties under 50K SF, larger spaces are not seeing as much demand, with only one deal above 50K SF signed in 3Q and less than 10 deals YTD.
Average rental rates in the Ventura industrial market reached a record high of $1.28 PSF NNN, an 9.4% increase YOY from $1.17 PSF NNN in Q3 2025. Despite rising vacancy, limited new construction and steady demand continue to support elevated rental rates.
Sales volume YTD posted 30% less volume than YTD last year, recording approximately 1.57M SF in sales activity. Rising interest rates and construction costs, combined with market uncertainty, have constrained buyer demand. Seller activity remains limited, and financing terms for industrial acquisitions are less favorable given current risk and return dynamics.
Economic Review
In August, the Oxnard-Thousand Oaks- Ventura MSA reported a preliminary unemployment rate of 5.2%, a slight increase from 5.1% when compared to the same time last year but down 20 bps from the month prior in January that posted at 5.4%.
The Port of Hueneme continues to monitor potential impacts from newly proposed federal fees on Chinese-built vessels. While the port maintains a diverse trade portfolio and limited reliance on Chinabased carriers, Port leadership remains cautious as policy details and implementation timelines are still evolving. The uncertainty comes as the port navigates broader trade headwinds, including elevated tariffs on imported automobiles and perishable goods, which are expected to affect revenue and container volume in the coming year.
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
Investor sentiment remains cautious both locally in Ventura and nationwide, largely due to persistent high interest rates. Despite these headwinds, Ventura continues to attract strong investor interest, bolstered by high rental rates in line with other Southern California industrial hubs. The Ventura industrial market is expected to maintain elevated rents and sale prices, supported by low vacancy rates due to a lack of speculative construction. Although overall demand is softening, the market’s solid fundamentals uphold Ventura’s reputation as a top-performing industrial region.
3Q 2025 Ventura County Industrial Market: Key Data Points
Explore our full Ventura County industrial market review for deeper insights into leasing trends, sale activity, and submarket performance.
- Vacancy Rate Hits Record High: Direct vacancy rose to 5.2%, up 180 bps year-over-year.
- Average Asking Rent Reaches New Peak: Asking lease rates climbed to $1.28 PSF NNN, a 9.4% increase YOY.
- Net Absorption Declines Sharply: Direct net absorption totaled -815,945 SF in Q3, continuing a multi-quarter negative trend.
- Leasing Activity Slows: Quarterly leasing activity reached 533K SF, with large-space deals remaining rare.
- Sales Volume Drops Nearly 30%: YTD sales volume fell to 1.57M SF, down 29.9% from the prior year.
- New Construction Remains Limited: Only 65K SF was delivered in Q3, with 817K SF currently under construction.
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