The following reflects East Bay retail market conditions as of Q3 2026.
The East Bay retail market in Q3 2026 saw vacancy tick up year-over-year even as unemployment, average asking rents, and construction deliveries all declined. Explore our full East Bay retail market report for deeper insights into leasing activity, investment performance, and development trends across the region.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the retail vacancy rate in East Bay in Q3 2026?
The East Bay retail vacancy rate was 5.6% in Q3 2026, according to Kidder Mathews research. This is up slightly from 5.7% in Q2 2026 and up 20 basis points year-over-year from 5.4% in Q3 2025 (Data source: CoStar).
What are average asking rents for East Bay retail space in Q3 2026?
Average asking rents for East Bay retail space were $2.38 per SF per year in Q3 2026, according to Kidder Mathews research. This is down slightly from $2.39 in Q2 2026 and down 2.79% year-over-year from $2.45 in Q3 2025 (Data source: CoStar).
What was net absorption in the East Bay retail market in Q3 2026?
Net absorption, which measures the change in occupied retail space, totaled 136,614 SF in the East Bay market in Q3 2026, according to Kidder Mathews research. Year-to-date 2026 net absorption stands at 31,151 SF, a marked improvement over negative 157,150 SF recorded through the same period in 2025 (Data source: CoStar).
How much retail space is under construction in East Bay?
There is 62,401 SF of retail space under construction in the East Bay market as of Q3 2026, according to Kidder Mathews research, down 57.68% year-over-year from 147,457 SF in Q3 2025. Construction deliveries totaled 2,000 SF in Q3 2026, and year-to-date 2026 deliveries of 22,377 SF are down 89.12% from 205,672 SF delivered through the same period in 2025 (Data source: CoStar).
What was the largest East Bay retail sale transaction in Q3 2026?
The largest sale transaction was Pinole Valley Shopping Center in the Martinez/Pacheco/Hercules submarket, a 65,902-SF property that sold for $42,700,000 ($647.93/SF), according to Kidder Mathews research. The buyer was Ap Pinole Valley, LP and the seller was Stockbridge Capital Group, LLC (Data source: CoStar).
What was the largest East Bay retail lease signed in Q3 2026?
The largest lease transaction was Goodwill’s 31,631-SF lease at Creekside Shopping Center in the Martinez/Pacheco/Hercules submarket, signed in July 2026, according to Kidder Mathews research (Data source: CoStar).
How do East Bay retail cap rates and sale prices compare to a year ago?
The average cap rate for East Bay retail properties was 6.4% in Q3 2026, down 40 basis points from 6.8% in Q3 2025, according to Kidder Mathews research. Average sales price per SF rose 31.56% year-over-year to $320, up from $243 in Q3 2025 (Data source: CoStar).
What is the outlook for the East Bay retail market?
The East Bay retail market enters the next quarter with vacancy up only modestly and new construction activity at multi-year lows, according to Kidder Mathews research. A 31.56% year-over-year rise in average sales price per SF and a 40-basis-point compression in cap rates suggest sustained investor demand for well-located East Bay retail assets even as new supply remains limited (Data source: CoStar).
Is retail space available for lease in East Bay right now?
Yes. With vacancy at 5.6% in Q3 2026, some retail space remains available across the East Bay market, according to Kidder Mathews research. Notable Q3 2026 leasing activity included deals with Goodwill, Elite Pro Fitness, and Jolly Roger Land (Data source: CoStar).
What retail projects are currently under construction in East Bay?
The largest project under construction is the Bay Area Animal Resource Center (BAARC) in Berkeley, a 35,835-SF property slated for delivery in Q1 2027, according to Kidder Mathews research. Other active projects include Brickyard in Livermore (16,335 SF, delivering Q4 2026) and 2535 Sand Creek Rd in Antioch/Pittsburg (5,641 SF, delivering Q4 2026) (Data source: CoStar).
Last updated: Q3 2026. Data source: CoStar. Compiled by the Kidder Mathews Research Group.
Q3 2026 East Bay Retail Market: Key Data Points
Explore our full East Bay retail market review for deeper insights into leasing trends, sale activity, and submarket performance.
- Vacancy Rate: East Bay retail vacancy stood at 5.6% in Q3 2026, up 20 basis points year-over-year from 5.4% in Q3 2025.
- Average Asking Rents: Average asking rents were $2.38/SF/Yr in Q3 2026, down 2.79% year-over-year from $2.45/SF/Yr in Q3 2025.
- Net Absorption: Net absorption totaled 136,614 SF in Q3 2026, bringing year-to-date 2026 absorption to 31,151 SF, a reversal from negative 157,150 SF through the same period in 2025.
- Construction Activity: 62,401 SF was under construction as of Q3 2026, down 57.68% year-over-year, while year-to-date deliveries of 22,377 SF are down 89.12% from 2025 YTD.
- Investment Sales: Average sales price rose 31.56% year-over-year to $320/SF, while the average cap rate compressed 40 basis points to 6.4%.
- Notable Transactions: The quarter’s largest sale was the 65,902-SF Pinole Valley Shopping Center ($42,700,000), and the largest lease was Goodwill’s 31,631-SF deal at Creekside Shopping Center.
Market Breakdown: Quarterly Comparison
| Metric | 3Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q25 | YOY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy Rate | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 20 bps |
| Average Asking Rents ($/SF/Yr) | $2.38 | $2.39 | $2.45 | -2.79% |
| Under Construction (SF) | 62,401 | 64,401 | 147,457 | -57.68% |
| Average Sales Price/SF | $320 | $316 | $243 | 31.56% |
| Average Cap Rate | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | -40 bps |
Market Breakdown: Year-to-Date Comparison
| Metric | 3Q26 | 2026 YTD | 2025 YTD | YOY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Deliveries (SF) | 2,000 | 22,377 | 205,672 | -89.12% |
| Net Absorption (SF) | 136,614 | 31,151 | -157,150 | N/A |
Significant Sale Transactions 3Q 2026
| Property | Submarket | SF | Sale Price | $/SF | Buyer | Seller |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinole Valley Shopping Center | Martinez/Pacheco/Hercules | 65,902 | $42,700,000 | $647.93 | Ap Pinole Valley, LP | Stockbridge Capital Group, LLC |
| Lucky Shopping Center | Hayward/Castro Valley | 67,722 | $14,930,000 | $220.46 | Intelli, LLC | Oak Street Real Estate Capital |
| 1901 Webster St | Alameda | 3,000 | $5,000,000 | $1,666.67 | Undisclosed | Thomas Properties |
Significant Lease Transactions 3Q 2026
| Property | Submarket | SF | Transaction Date | Tenant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creekside Shopping Center | Martinez/Pacheco/Hercules | 31,631 | July 2026 | Goodwill |
| Lido Faire Shopping Center | Newark | 13,592 | August 2026 | Elite Pro Fitness |
| The Wedge at Union Landing | Union City | 10,000 | August 2026 | Jolly Roger Land |
Significant Under Construction
| Property | Submarket | SF | Delivery |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bay Area Animal Resource Center (BAARC) | Berkeley | 35,835 | 1Q 2027 |
| Brickyard | Livermore | 16,335 | 4Q 2026 |
| 2535 Sand Creek Rd | Antioch/Pittsburg | 5,641 | 4Q 2026 |
Data as of Q3 2026. Source: CoStar. Prepared by the Kidder Mathews Research Group.
ContactGARY BARAGONA |
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